NFL Predictions After Week 11: Updated Playoff Picture and Super Bowl Odds
The 2024 NFL season continues to deliver surprises as we move past Week 11, with NFL spreads and Super Bowl odds reflecting dramatic shifts in team trajectories. The Detroit Lions have emerged as the new Super Bowl favorites at +270, following their remarkable 8-1 start. The Kansas City Chiefs remain strong contenders at +300, while the Philadelphia Eagles have maintained their position as viable championship threats at +450. The Buffalo Bills' impressive 8-2 record has strengthened their Super Bowl odds to +800, solidifying their status as legitimate contenders.
AFC Power Structure: Chiefs and Ravens Setting the Pace
The Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) continue their historic run, showcasing why they're among the favorites in NFL predictions against the spread. Patrick Mahomes maintains his elite performance, averaging 289.4 yards per game with 17 touchdowns against just two interceptions. The midseason acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins has transformed their passing attack, with the veteran receiver contributing 612 yards and six touchdowns in seven games. The Chiefs' defense remains their backbone, leading the league by allowing just 15.3 points per game, while Chris Jones continues to dominate with 8.5 sacks.
The Baltimore Ravens (7-3) have established themselves as serious contenders, with their NFL playoff predictions showing a >99% chance of making the postseason. Lamar Jackson's efficiency (68.2% completion rate) and the Ravens' defensive prowess under coordinator Zach Orr (35 sacks, 19 takeaways) make them formidable opponents. Their 63% chance of winning the division reflects their strong position in the AFC North.
NFC Landscape: Lions Roar to Championship Favoritism
Detroit's transformation into the NFC's top team is reflected in their NFL game predictions, with a projected 14.2 wins and a 75% chance of securing the conference's top seed. Jared Goff's record-setting accuracy (74.9% completion rate) and his connection with Amon-Ra St. Brown (898 yards on 71 catches) have powered their offense. The Lions' offensive line continues to excel, having allowed just 11 sacks while supporting the NFL's second-ranked rushing attack.
The Washington Commanders (7-4) remain one of the season's biggest surprises, with Jayden Daniels leading them to a 95% chance of making the playoffs. Their success in NFL predictions against the spread has made them a bettor's favorite, while their defensive resurgence (21 sacks in their last six games) has strengthened their postseason aspirations.
Wild Card Race: Competitive Balance Emerges
The AFC wild card picture features several strong contenders. The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) have exceeded expectations with Russell Wilson's renaissance and T.J. Watt's defensive dominance (13.5 sacks), leading to a 94% chance of making the playoffs. The Chargers (6-3) under Jim Harbaugh have shown remarkable improvement, with Justin Herbert approaching 3,000 yards and a 93% chance of reaching the postseason.
In the NFC, the Minnesota Vikings (7-2) continue their improbable run with Sam Darnold, while the Green Bay Packers (6-3) remain in strong playoff position with a 69% chance of making the postseason. The Arizona Cardinals (6-4) have emerged as surprising contenders, with a 74% chance of winning their division.
Looking Ahead: Critical December Matchups
The season's final month features several crucial games that will impact NFL playoff predictions. Key matchups include:
- Week 13: Ravens vs. Chiefs (potential AFC Championship preview)
- Week 14: Lions vs. Vikings (NFC North implications)
- Week 15: Eagles vs. Commanders (NFC East battle)
- Week 16: Bills vs. Chiefs (potential playoff positioning decider)
These games will likely determine the final playoff seeding and could significantly impact Super Bowl odds as teams position themselves for a championship run.