US Politics - Trump Policy Specials (5)

Pete Hegseth: Defense Secretary Exit Date

4/13/25 4:00 AM

Hegseth Exit Date

• Q2 2025 +700
• Q3 2025 +800
• Q4 2025 +800
• Not before 2026 -400

Date that Pete Hegseth first ceases to be Defense Secretary.

Will US cease to be a full NATO member in 2025?

4/20/25 4:00 AM

Will US leave NATO?

• Yes +1200
• No -6600

According to NATO's list of states with full membership.

Will there be a US government shutdown in 2025?

4/21/25 1:00 AM

Govt Shutdown in 2025?

• Yes +150
• No -200

Partial or full shutdown as reported by Associated Press.

Will there be a US recession in 2025?

4/28/25 12:00 AM

US Recession?

• Yes -140
• No +105

Recession = two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Applies from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025 inclusive.

Who will buy TikTok (US Unit)?

5/4/25 4:00 AM

Who will buy TikTok?

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• Oracle +140
• Larry Ellison +180
• Alexis Ohanian +400
• Perplexity AI +400
• Amazon +450
• Microsoft +500
• Meta +750
• Frank McCourt +1200
• Elon Musk +1500
• MrBeast +1800
• Rumble +2000
• Steve Mnuchin +2500
• Sam Altman +4000
• Walmart +4000
• X (Twitter) +4000

Applies to US unit acquisition/merger. TikTok announcement of agreement will count for settlement. Dead heat rules may apply. Bookmaker decision final. Others on request.

US Politics - Gubernatorial Elections (1)

California: 2026 Gubernatorial Election Winner

4/21/25 12:00 AM

California Governor 2026

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• Katie Porter +125
• Kamala Harris +165
• Eleni Kounalakis +600
• Antonio Villaraigosa +800
• Rick Caruso +1000
• John Cox +1400
• Steve Garvey +1400
• Karen Bass +2000
• Adam Schiff +2200
• Tim Walz +2200
• Ron Reagan +4000

All in, run or not. Others on request.

Politician Specials - Donald Trump Specials (2)

Trump President Exit Date

4/27/25 4:00 AM

Trump Exit Date

• 2025 +800
• 2026 +800
• 2027 +800
• 2028 +700
• 2029 or later -300

Date that Donald Trump next officially ceases to be US President.

Donald & Melania: Year of Divorce

6/30/25 3:00 AM

Year Of Divorce

• 2025 +800
• 2026 +1000
• Not before 2027 -1000

Applies to the date of finalised divorce.

US Politics - US Presidential Election 2028 (3)

US Presidential Election 2028 - Winning Party

10/31/26 4:01 AM

Winning Party

• Republican -135
• Democrat +110
• Independent +5000

US Presidential Election 2028 - Nominee Match-Ups

1/1/28 5:00 AM

Nominee Match-Ups

• Ron DeSantis (Republican) vs Gavin Newsom (Democrat) +1600
• Ron DeSantis (Republican) vs Michelle Obama (Democrat) +3000

Either candidate to be the official nominee of Party quoted/run against each other for the 2028 POTUS.

US Presidential Election 2028 - Odds to Win

11/8/28 3:00 AM

Winner

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• JD Vance +250
• Donald Trump Jr. +1400
• Josh Shapiro +1400
• Gavin Newsom +1600
• Gretchen Whitmer +2000
• Pete Buttigieg +2000
• Tulsi Gabbard +2500
• Andy Beshear +3000
• Michelle Obama +3000
• Rick Scott +3000
• Ron DeSantis +3000
• Tim Scott +3000
• Tucker Carlson +3000
• Wes Moore +3000
• Elon Musk +3500
• JB Pritzker +3500
• Kamala Harris +3500
• Mark Kelly +3500
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +4000
• Nikki Haley +4000
• Paul Ryan +4000
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. +4000
• Tom Cotton +4000
• Vivek Ramaswamy +4000
• Brian Kemp +5000
• Dan Crenshaw +5000
• Doug Burgum +5000
• Dwayne Johnson +5000
• Glenn Youngkin +5000
• Hakeem Jeffries +5000
• Mark Cuban +5000
• Ivanka Trump +6000
• Jamie Dimon +6000
• Tim Walz +6000
• Aaron Rodgers +7500
• Jon Stewart +8000
• Joe Rogan +10000
• Jill Biden +12500
• Joe Biden +15000
• Dana White +20000
• LeBron James +20000
• Taylor Swift +20000
• Travis Kelce +20000