US Politics - Trump Policy Specials (5)

Pete Hegseth: Defense Secretary Exit Date

4/13/25 4:00 AM

Hegseth Exit Date

• Q2 2025 +700
• Q3 2025 +800
• Q4 2025 +800
• Not before 2026 -400

Date that Pete Hegseth first ceases to be Defense Secretary.

Will US cease to be a full NATO member in 2025?

4/20/25 4:00 AM

Will US leave NATO?

• Yes +1200
• No -6600

According to NATO's list of states with full membership.

Will there be a US government shutdown in 2025?

4/21/25 1:00 AM

Govt Shutdown in 2025?

• Yes +150
• No -200

Partial or full shutdown as reported by Associated Press.

Will there be a US recession in 2025?

4/28/25 12:00 AM

US Recession?

• Yes -140
• No +105

Recession = two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Applies from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025 inclusive.

Who will buy TikTok (US Unit)?

5/4/25 4:00 AM

Who will buy TikTok?

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• Oracle +140
• Larry Ellison +180
• Alexis Ohanian +400
• Perplexity AI +400
• Amazon +450
• Microsoft +500
• Meta +750
• Frank McCourt +1200
• Elon Musk +1500
• MrBeast +1800
• Rumble +2000
• Steve Mnuchin +2500
• Sam Altman +4000
• Walmart +4000
• X (Twitter) +4000

Applies to US unit acquisition/merger. TikTok announcement of agreement will count for settlement. Dead heat rules may apply. Bookmaker decision final. Others on request.